Sen. John McCain became the likely Republican nominee after Mitt Romney decided to suspend his campaign Thursday. Now, the Democrats are debating who would do better against the Arizona Republican.
Two polls this month have asked registered voters nationwide how they would vote if the choice were between McCain and Democratic Sen. Hillary Clinton.
A CNN poll, conducted by the Opinion Research Corporation February 1-3, shows Clinton three points ahead of McCain, 50 percent to 47 percent. That's within the poll's margin of error of 3 percentage points, meaning that the race is statistically tied..
A Time magazine poll, conducted February 1-4, also shows a dead heat between Clinton and McCain. Each was backed by 46 percent of those polled.
Sen. Barack Obama believes he can do better, arguing "I've got appeal that goes beyond our party."
In the CNN poll, Obama leads McCain by 8 points, 52 percent to 44 percent. That's outside the margin of error, meaning that Obama has the lead.
And in the Time poll, Obama leads McCain by 7 points, 48 percent to 41 percent -- a lead also outside of the poll's margin of error of 3 percentage points.
In both polls, Obama looks stronger than Clinton. Why?
Obama's explanation: "I think there is no doubt that she has higher negatives than any of the remaining Democratic candidates. That's just a fact, and there are some who will not vote for her."
That was three weeks ago. Now, only two Democratic candidates remain.
Clinton does have higher negatives than Obama -- and McCain. Forty-four percent of the public say they don't like Clinton, compared with 36 percent who don't like McCain and 31 percent who don't like Obama, according to the CNN poll conducted February 1-3.
Why does Obama do better against McCain than Clinton? Obama does do a little better than Clinton with independents and Republicans.
But the big difference is men: Men give McCain an 18-point lead over Clinton, 57 percent to 39 percent, according to the CNN poll. The margin of error for that question was plus or minus 5 percentage points.
But if McCain and Obama went head to head, McCain's lead among men shrinks to three, 49 percent to 46 percent -- statistically a tie.
Women, on the other hand, vote for either Clinton or Obama by similar margins.
Some Democrats may be worried about how Obama will fare with white voters. Whites give McCain a 15-point lead over Clinton, (56 percent for McCain, 41 percent for Clinton).
But Obama actually fares better than Clinton with white voters. McCain still leads, but by a smaller margin, (52 to 43 percent).
Obama argues that he can reach across party lines. And he does do a little better than Clinton with Independents and Republicans, at least in these polls.
But the big difference is that Clinton doesn't draw very well with men. Obama does.
5 comments:
Obama hasn't been tested by the Republicans yet, while Hillary has always been a thorn in their side. If Obama gets the Democratic nomination, no telling what they will find or create to damage his reputation.
Obama has a number of weaknesses that we know of that the REPUBLICANS will take advantage of:
1. He has drug use in his past
2. He has a slum lord relationship
3. He is inexperienced
4. He will be "unable" to make the difficult decision to go to war.
5. He will be a "figure head" president instead of a problem solver.
HILLARY IS THE BETTER CANDIDATE TO TAKE ON THE REPUBLICANS. The rest is media hype.
In other words, the country is more sexist than it is racist. Or, more tellingly, men see the female part of Clinton's identity (the ambitious ice-queen scorpionic) as less desirable than white people see the black part of Obama's identity, perhaps because he doesn't easily fit into a negative media stereotype about black men (whereas Clinton partially fits a negative media stereotype about women).
That's how I see the results of this poll anyway. I have a pretty bleak view of Americans though, and I feel like they'd be more swayed by attempts of the Republican attack machine to (subtly) convey Clinton as a ball-busting, ruthless, hysterical/emotional woman than by attempts to depict Obama as an inexperienced, pacifistic, idealistic youngster. This is because Obama has already faced such charges and become them, saying in effect, "yes, I'm inexperienced, but that's a good thing, because obviously the experienced people in control right now have fucked things over with their way of doing things. And I'm going to do things differently." I think there's enough widespread discontent for Obama's counterspin to work on a national level and not just a party level (especially since the Republican base is leery of McCain). He's owned the inexperience criticism, transformed it into something positive for his campaign, and been largely successful in doing so.
I don't see Clinton being as successful in deflecting the subtle digs against her that will surely come. She'll attempt to, valiantly, but they'll be too subtle and too deeply psychological for her to make many inroads. Though, I'd love to see her try, because if anyone could figure out how to erode the hidden sexism in our society, she might have a chance.
America, by and large, has developed pretty sucky intimate relationships between men and women, and the Republicans will subtly, psychologically target men with this if Clinton wins the nomination. And there are too many men (Independents and centrist Democrats) who would be swayed. None of this is about the issues, but I'm cynical about American politics - and I think for many of us it ultimately comes down to who we feel good about and who we don't when we take to the polling booths.
The main problem with Democratic strategy is that it's too nice - it assumes that politics are all about issues, character, and inner strength. The Republican attack machine has been successful because it's not afraid to use mockery to play on people's psychologies, constructing laughable images for opposing candidates and getting us to believe them, even if on an unconscious level, even if they have no bearing in reality. And even if we don't believe them, the images are so well-crafted that they saturate our minds and make it hard to think for ourselves.
I wonder what is going on among the democrats. I think the race is now between Obama and Hillary. They both have their strength and weaknesses. And I hope they will use their strength to their advantage.
Breaking News on: http://breakdnews.blogspot.com
I can not wait for this election primary to be over... I am looking forward to a Obama McCain's Challenge
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